Drewry’s Quarterly Container Forecaster Released
Managing month-to-month changes to services and schedules is now a constant battle for container operators as they strive to keep the spot market from imploding in the current weak demand environment, according to Drewry’s new Container Forecaster report.
The industry managed the influx of new vessels pretty well in 2012, with a small reduction of 1.6% in operational headhaul capacity in the three main East-West trades for the full year. Greater use of slow steaming has helped, and there was an average of 10.3 vessels assigned to weekly strings in the three core East-West trades as of January 2013, up from 10.1 last October. However, by the end of April we estimate that the year-on-year capacity on three trades will have risen by nearly 1%. Further ahead, capacity on the headhaul will increase by 10.2% on Asia-North Europe and 5.5% on the transpacific in the second quarter. With over 40 ships of at least 10,000 teu due for delivery in 2013, carriers will find it increasingly difficult to manage capacity without upsetting the fragile supply-demand balance. Carriers are asking themselves where they can put these vessels without flooding the market.
Neil Dekker, Drewry’s head of container research, stated, “Missed sailings between October and February may have lifted average load factors in the East-West trades by between 2% and 5%, but there is no evidence that this improves the success of GRI attempts over any sustained period of time. The supply-side pressures caused by new deliveries could force carriers to take more drastic measures such as suspension of whole strings. For now, the lines’ strategy seems to be one of damage limitation on a very short-term basis before the next wave of ships is delivered.”
Every quarter the Container Forecaster will deliver up to date independent market intelligence and topical analysis, comment and forecasts across the whole spectrum of demand, supply, rate and cost issues.
This quarterly report covers:
World container trade and port volumes
Global supply and demand
Trade Route analysis
Freight rates and carrier financials
The charter market and Sales & Purchases
Drewry also publishes a yearly overview of the market in September, called the Container Market Annual Review and Forecast.
To find out more, have a look at the full product information on www.drewry.co.uk