Short sea shipping and the potential of 45-foot containers in North Range-Baltic Sea region traffic
Port of Hamburg Marketing (HHM), with the help of the Bremen-headquartered Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL), has finalised a study on the existing and future potential freight volumes handled by various short sea shipping companies in traffic to/from the Baltic Sea region (BSR) as well as has investigated the main challenges for a wider use of 45-foot long containers, all of this as HHM’s contribution to the TransBaltic Extension project.
After dealing with the first obstacle of estimating the share of shortsea-land traffic in the overall container volumes, something which is not distinguished in official statistics, the ISL found out that in 2012 the total containerised shortsea-land traffic between North Range ports and BSR amounted to approx. 1.1 mln TEU, with an additional 0.2 mln TEU within the Baltic area itself (roughly the same as in 2011). Long-distance short sea shipping services cut out the biggest share, e.g. North Range-Russia up to almost 0.6 mln TEU, followed by traffic to/from Sweden and Finland (each with around 0.15 mln TEU). The use of 45’ boxes oscillated in 2012 at nearly 0.5 mln TEU across the whole North Range-BSR container trades (89 thou. TEU in Baltic alone).
However, due to the impending 1st January 2015 stricter sulphur regulations regarding ships’ fuel (SECA), ISL forecasts a freight shift onto ferries (from which the Baltic short sea shipping already faces tough competition) or onto overland routes where a viable alternative can be set up. The 2020/2030 base outlook anticipates a drop by 10 percent in containerised shortsea volumes between 2012 and 2020 and more or less a recovery to 2012 figures no sooner that after another 10 years.
The study tables also a set of countermeasures. Firstly, the emission-based bonuses, when a 30 percent fuel cost reduction would not only offset the extra costs of SECA, but also increase the shortsea potential by 17-18 percent (around 235,000 TEU in 2030). Secondly, subsidising container handlings, where a EUR 10 subsidy on handling in EU ports would add some 7-8 percent (ca. 80,000 TEU in 2020 and 100,000 TEU a decade later). Thirdly, marketing efforts in the Baltic Sea economies could provide more backhaul cargo and balance imports and exports; this would minimize empty container runs, cut costs for the benefit of short sea shipping clients and thus tip the scale in favour of container shipments (50,000 TEU in 2030). Furthermore, motivating deep-sea carriers to accept short sea cargo on their feeder network would increase the sailings frequency to/from hub ports and might further increase volumes. And last but not least – customizing shippers’ facilities to make them more container-friendly, since many of them can only handle trailers due to loading ramps’ design. The study presents different countermeasures-implemented scenarios.
Additionally, the paper points out the most striking hindrances of a wider use of 45-footers. Some container terminals in North Range ports are fairly reluctant to see such units occupying space in their backyards (consuming the space of three 20’ boxes). Moreover, even if some shippers (e.g. from southern Germany) would like to take the advantage of a 45’, the rather limited supply of such boxes forces to have a pre-carriage of the box to the shipper, rendering the whole operation economically unattractive, giving standard boxes (or trucks) a privileged position.